What will happen next with bitcoin and will it grow again?

Bitcoin and other altcoins are gradually recovering from the largest sell-off in the entire cryptocurrency market. In general, everything goes according to the script, and something unexpected did not happen. All that bitcoin buyers will grab at now is the 200-day moving average, on which quite a lot depends. We talked in more detail about the scenario of a bear market in our previous reviews. Now we need to figure out what happened yesterday and really bitcoin was “blown away”.

In fact, everything is not as bad as it might seem. The correction suggested itself for a long time, but while young investors panicked and closed their short positions, some manually, some on margin, large institutional investors continued to buy and buy quite a lot. First of all, you need to focus on these indicators, and not on what Elon Musk said there or what additional restrictions China has introduced in relation to the turnover of cryptocurrencies.

By the way, yesterday about 175,000 BTC were withdrawn from various exchanges per day – this is the maximum amount since the markets fell after the start of the pandemic. On the evening of May 19 alone, more than 37,000 coins left the crypto exchanges. This suggests that the market decline, if it has not ended, then at least it will not continue at the observed pace. Several leading cryptocurrency analysts have released reports stating that many investment funds were actively buying bitcoin immediately after the price dropped below $ 35,000. BTC data from public companies also speaks of this:

As of January 03, 2021, the amount of accumulated BTC was at the level of 1,151,618. As of March 03, 2021, the number increased to 1,350,118, and on May 20, 2021, it increased to 1,647,586. What does this mean? Obviously not about the end of bitcoin and that all this is just another scam. While large players enter the market, such corrections are not something that will be observed, they are simply necessary for further bullish impulses with the renewal of historical highs.

During the correction, the exchanges received a record volume of stablecoins – the equivalent of $ 5.28 billion.This suggests that many investors returned to the market and bought cheaper cryptocurrency assets while speculators recorded losses and fled from it.

If you still have any doubts about what to buy now and not sell in any way, then here’s a recent report from Bank of America: Bitcoin’s popularity these days is at such a high level that many managers of large funds. A poll of 194 fund managers with a total AUM of $ 592 billion found that long Bitcoin is the largest deal in the world. Yes, the report was released even before yesterday’s major correction of cryptocurrencies, but as we already know, large players did not throw off their positions, but, on the contrary, increased them.

As follows from the note to the survey, bitcoin trading is currently the busiest and accounts for about 27% of the total volume. Previous “peaks” of maximum volumes were recorded in the technology sector in September 2020 and September 2018, US Treasury bonds in March 2020. It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time a cryptocurrency has topped such a list.

In conclusion, I would like to tell you that yesterday was not without troubles, except for a sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market, of course. The world’s largest cryptocurrency trading platforms suffered disruptions during the market crash. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, temporarily disabled Ethereum withdrawals, citing network congestion, while Coinbase Global Inc. reported “intermittent downtime” for its platform, but later released a statement that identified and fixed the issue. Interruptions were also observed on the Kraken breech.

Many users complained that they could not purchase not only large altcoins, but also problems were observed, for example, with Dogecoin, XRP and Shiba Inu Coins.

But in fairness, it should be noted that all exchanges coped with the problems and promptly corrected them, which in the eyes of the community only makes them stronger and causes more trust in them. The leading cryptocurrency platforms did not have problems with the loss of assets or withdrawals, which may not be good news.

Experts: shoulder collapsed in Bitcoin, you need to buy at 30,000

Schedule bitcoin in USD at 4 hour intervals

Bitcoin recovered slightly on Thursday after a sharp crash in the previous session to four-month lows, but was weighed down by concerns about tighter regulation in China and concerns about the size of leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency world.

Bitcoin, the largest and most popular cryptocurrency, surged 8.75% to $ 40,000 after falling 14% on Wednesday to its lowest level since late January.

Ether, its smaller competitor, rose 6.6% to $ 2,600 at 06:30 GMT, but traded extremely volatile after falling 28% on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s plunge for both digital assets was their biggest daily percentage move in more than a year, as investors rushed out of trades that until recently were vastly outperforming traditional markets like stocks and bonds.

The latest catalyst was a statement by Chinese financial regulators on Tuesday barring institutions from offering registration, trading, clearing and settlement of cryptocurrencies.

But Bitcoin has been under pressure for almost a week after a series of tweets from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a major cryptocurrency investor, mostly about Tesla’s refusal to accept Bitcoin as payment.

While Beijing has taken steps in the past to block access to cryptocurrency exchanges domestically, its latest directive has been broader.

It prohibits the use of cryptocurrencies for payments and settlements, and also prohibits institutions from providing cryptocurrency-related products or exchange services between cryptocurrencies and yuan or foreign currencies.

Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne-based brokerage Pepperstone, pointed out that $ 9.13 billion worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated on exchanges within 24 hours, for a total of $ 532 billion in transactions.

“It’s too early to say if the rebound we have seen from the lows in cryptocurrency is underfoot, but when we started Asian trading, I doubted if we would get a chance to catch our breath or more volatility awaits us?” …

According to traders, the downturn has forced some investors to close leveraged positions in cryptocurrency pegged derivatives, further dropping prices and pushing digital assets into a lower trading range.

James Quinn, managing director of Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency private wealth manager Q9 Capital, said there is not much evidence of extended leverage in these cryptocurrencies and that sales reflect huge overflowing positions on the air.

Prior to the sale, Ether grew sixfold, surpassing Bitcoin this year after being widely used as a non-fungible token on digital art platforms.

“For me, this is both a spot sale and a reflection of people cutting back on leverage in futures and swaps,” Quinn said. “Sometimes a market event needs to find the cause. I think it’s about positioning. In the long term, it will probably be positive, because the very crowded trade due to the large number of new participants means that there are many new investors. “

Bitcoin may fall a little more, but is likely to stabilize at around $ 30,000, said Justin D’Anetan, head of exchange sales at Diginex, Singapore’s digital asset market.

Digital assets are taking a wild leap forward this year as more retail and institutional investors are betting that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will gain widespread acceptance, but large price swings are common. Bitcoin is up 27% this year and intraday volatility is up nearly 300% this week.

Notable cryptocurrency proponents such as MicroStrategy Inc CEO Michael Saylor, Ark Invest CEO [ARKK.P] Katie Wood and Musk pledged their support for Bitcoin as it plummeted Wednesday.

While some retail traders saw the downturn as a lost opportunity, others saw the debacle as a chance to buy digital assets cheaply.

“It was purely a technical dip in Bitcoin,” said Michael Oliveri, a New York-based freelance trader who was previously a partner at First New York Securities.

“It was actually a simple short trade. I’m annoyed that I didn’t short-circuit it. I wouldn’t be chasing that right now. ”

Milko Markov, an independent London-based trader, said he was buying ether.

“Those with a little more experience in the cryptocurrency market know two basic rules: do not use leverage and averaging the dollar value (this is an investment strategy aimed at reducing the impact of volatility on large purchases of financial assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies – approx . ProFinance.ru “, – he said.

How much money did investors lose after the fall of the cryptocurrency market and what will happen to bitcoin?

A crypto bubble of more than $ 1 trillion collapsed yesterday in the blink of an eye, reminding the world once again how to treat money and savings and why unregulated markets that rise and fall solely on the manipulation of large players and trust cannot be trusted. Bitcoin capitalization immediately decreased by 10% and amounted to 724,907,570,669 USD.

Bitcoin fell 29%, and the capitalization of the world’s first cryptocurrency fell by $ 500 billion from the maximum market value of the coin. And although then there was a rather impressive rebound, which made it possible to compensate for up to 15% of the total fall, this day will probably live on for a long time in the memory of traders.

All the promises of Elon Musk and Tesla Inc. that they will use corporate money to buy bitcoins, as well as begin to accept them as payment for their cars, all this purely resembles manipulations that will be remembered for a long time. Ethereum, the second largest coin, fell more than 40%, while Musk’s favorite token Dogecoin lost 45%.

The sell-off came at a time when stocks and commodities were also under pressure and the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its most recent meeting. The sharp sale of cryptocurrencies also led to disruptions in the work of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, starting with Coinbase Global Inc. and ending with Binance.

Let me remind you that it all started after Tesla CEO Elon Musk provoked sharp movements in Bitcoin last week, which then resulted in gradual sales, causing panic in investors. Bitcoin fell when Musk announced that the automaker would not accept it as payment. Yesterday the markets were finished off by the statement of the People’s Bank of China that digital tokens cannot be used as a form of payment. The central bank also imposed a number of restrictions on companies, forbidding them to engage in the purchase and sale of cryptocurrency assets.

The minimum that was recorded after the fall of bitcoin is in the region of 29,700. You could imagine a month ago, when the rate confidently tested a maximum of 64,000, that after nothing, bitcoin could be bought at 29,000. This is the whole pain and the whole market interest for speculators.

But there are also optimists who have been waiting for a bitcoin correction for a long time. For some, yesterday will be the first day of exploring this asset class.

As for the technical picture, then yesterday I spoke in detail about what lies ahead and what scenario will be played out, we will find out in the near future.

Look at Bitcoin’s rise in 2018. When it reached the 20,000 level, a bear market began, resulting in crypto winter for the next two years. The breakdown of the 200-day moving average was the last drop of hope for investors hoping for a larger rise in bitcoin in the medium term. If such a scenario occurs this year, and the 200-day moving average is now at the level of 39,000-40,000, then it is possible that the market will quickly collapse and, at best, we can expect a stop in the region of the average price of the value of bitcoin, which it owns MicroStrategy company. Yesterday, the 200-day moving average was broken and the asset fell just crazy. However, at the end of the day, the close was slightly higher, or at the 200-day level, which leaves a chance for buyers and fuels hope for an early recovery of bitcoin to its historical highs.

Medium-term forecast and direction of bitcoin for this summer… If we start from the 200-day moving average, then there is a chance of a quick recovery to the 52,000 area, and then a return to the highs in the 64,000 area by this fall. If we break through the 200-day moving average again, there is a risk of falling back to the area of ​​29,000, and then to 22,000 it will grow exponentially due to the panic sell-off and loss of confidence of speculative players in this asset.

And in conclusion, I would like to draw your attention to the post of Elon Musk during the global sale of bitcoin.

Elon Musk: “In Tesla Diamond hands.”

The expression “Diamond hands” in WallStreetBets community slang implies that the investor holds the asset until the end. It is possible that we are talking about bitcoin. Draw your own conclusions.

Bitcoin dropped below $ 40,000: Bank of China has banned the use of digital tokens as a means of payment

Schedule bitcoin prices at intervals of 1 day. Source: Bloomberg

At morning trading on Wednesday, the leading cryptocurrencies fall in price by 10-20%, and the bitcoin price dropped below $ 40,000, losing all the achievements gained since February 8, when Elon Musk announced that Tesla bought this cryptocurrency for $ 1.5 billion and may start accepting it as payment for electric vehicles.

Bitcoin hit record highs of $ 65,000 in mid-April and has since dropped by about 40%.

The reason for today’s collapse of cryptocurrencies lies in the statement of the Bank of China, which banned their use as a means of payment. The regulator noted that cryptocurrencies are not real currencies, therefore, financial and payment organizations of the Middle Kingdom are prohibited from specifying prices for their services in cryptocurrency.

However, this announcement does not entail any new regulatory implications, said Yu Linggu, vice director of the Shenzhen Institute of China Development. According to him, the regulator only voiced a statement, but it itself was drawn up not by government officials, but by various associations.

“They (the authorities – approx. ProFinance.ru) just want to be careful,” says Bobby Lee, head of Ballet, a cryptocurrency storage company. “They feel that the market is overheated and speculation is raging. They act in the interests of the people. “

Forecast based on horizontal volumes for Bitcoin on 05/19/21

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

3. Analysis of the trend.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

5. Conclusions. Statistics.

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

Risk management will help you make money on the cryptocurrency market even during periods of major corrections. We continue to consider the main risks that should be described in the risk management algorithm.

Risk for a month. This risk determines the amount of losses allowed for one month, for example, no more than 20% of the deposit. Why is this restriction necessary? The trading system can find itself at a global trend reversal or a change in the economic cycle in the world economy. Before that, there could be a long bull market, prices were rising, the market was optimistic, and the trading system was profitable. But the market may change to a protracted “bearish phase”, prices will start to fall, the news will be solid negative, and the trading system may start to bring losses. This market condition can last for months or years. In order not to lose much, you need to stop at the beginning of such changes. If the maximum risk for a month is reached, then it is better to stop trading and analyze the situation. It is worth analyzing trade statistics, news background, macroeconomic indicators, trying to understand the reasons. If the market has not changed, then trading can be resumed from next month. If there have been dramatic changes in the market, then it is better to suspend trading in this system. It is good if the trader has a portfolio of trading systems, then stopping one trading system should not greatly affect the trades.

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

It is possible that a full-fledged downward correction has begun on the market. Consider the levels of maximum horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange. These volumes show the activity of major players.

05/17/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 43025

05/18/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 43335

ROS moved up, the price is below two levels of the maximum volume. There is a downward movement in the market. In such a situation, you can sell in terms of volume analysis.

3. Analysis of the trend.

The second step in the analysis is to check the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. It is worth making deals when the direction of all three trends coincides. To analyze the trend in these forecasts, an exponential moving average is used:

Long-term trend – EMA 1152 (blue) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the D timeframe;

Medium-term trend – EMA 288 (red) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the H4 timeframe;

Short-term trend – EMA 48 (black) on the H1 timeframe.

The price continues to be below all three EMAs, all three trends coincide. Today it is possible to sell from the point of view of trend analysis.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Market analysis using Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let’s analyze yesterday’s daily candle:


Closing of the daily candle is down, the candle is black. Extrema inside the extrema of the previous candle. The candlestick configuration is indefinite, the body is small, the shadows are small. It is possible to sell from the point of view of candlestick analysis.

5. Conclusions. Statistics.

  1. Volumetric analysis SELL.
  2. Long term trend SELL.
  3. Medium-term trend SELL.
  4. Short term trend SELL.
  5. Japanese candlestick analysis SELL.

General conclusion: 05/19/21 it is possible to sell bitcoin, since different types of analysis give the same predictions.

Only statistics can show the effectiveness of any trading approach. According to these forecasts, transactions are made on a separate account and open statistics of these transactions are provided. Trades are made in four instruments Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCHUSD which are analyzed in a similar way. 9.1% yield over 3 months with a maximum drawdown of 4.88%. Statement:


We continue to hold the deal to sell bitcoin, the stop loss has been moved beyond the extremum of yesterday, part of the profit has already been fixed.

The risk per trade is not more than 1%, this approach is conservative. Stop loss for this system is set behind the minimum or maximum of the signal day, depending on the direction of the deal. Profit is given the opportunity to grow without restrictions, since I do not set take profit. I accompany the trade by moving the stop loss beyond the extremes of new days.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Second hit. Panic intensifies, heading for $ 29,000

Bitcoin’s key support at 41,980.24 is broken. Above it, the main cryptocurrency and the market as a whole still had a chance of recovery. But a hit from China, where a new ban was imposed on cryptocurrencies, intensified the sell-off.

On Wednesday, China banned financial institutions from conducting any cryptocurrency transactions.

The reason for the ban, according to the National Internet Finance Association of China, the China Banking Association, and the China Payment and Clearing Association, is the high volatility of bitcoin. This is a threat to the economy, property of the population, their security and the established financial order.

“Cryptocurrency prices have skyrocketed and dropped recently, and speculative cryptocurrency trading has recovered, seriously encroaching on the safety of people’s property and disrupting the normal economic and financial order,” the institutions said in a statement.

The level of 34708.27 for bitcoin, which was mentioned in yesterday’s review, was not only reached, but also broken at the time of this writing. The next technical target south for Bitcoin is support at $ 28,392.99 per coin if the break of the horizontal at 34708.27 turns out to be true.

Now the current volatility is caused by panic. Bitcoin lost almost 22% in 24 hours. First, Elon Musk, who created the trigger for the fall, is now China. How long this story will last is unclear. On the one hand, it will depend on the news background, which will either strengthen sales or, conversely, calm the market down. On the other hand, technical targets south for Bitcoin after the 28392.99 horizontal are at 24220.97 and 19418.19. We are not talking about their achievement yet, but … the market is very volatile, anything is possible.

One thing is clear: even opening short positions in this situation is very risky. Catching falling knives is a losing strategy. To look for an entry point, in my opinion, is best after the situation has stabilized a little, at least after the close of today’s daily candle.

Cryptocurrency market analysis. May 19. He flew away but promised to return

The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin is absolutely understandable on a higher scale and very difficult to analyze on a lower scale. Internal wave sets look very ambiguous and hardly fall under the definition of “classical wave counting”. However, I want to remind readers that the main thing is to understand the big picture and be able to work out the current wave counting and make money on it. Also, for Bitcoin (especially for Bitcoin!), The news background is very important, which we will talk about a little below. Now let’s get back to the wave counting. After, presumably, 5 global upward waves were built, a completely logical correctional structure began, which, according to the classics, consists of three abc waves. And all three waves are already well traced on the chart. Thus, we can even assume that the construction of the correctional set of waves is completed, and bitcoin will now “resurrect”. However, looking at the previous global waves and their internal structures, I would not be surprised at all if the trend section starting after April 14 takes on a much more complex form. At the moment, I can say that bitcoin quotes have dipped to the low of the assumed global wave 4. An unsuccessful attempt to break this low will indicate the willingness of the cryptocurrency to move up slightly and build an upward wave.

Bitcoin collapsed today in the truest sense of the word. While analysts and economists were calculating to what values ​​Bitcoin could fall, the cryptocurrency fell down in a few hours by several thousand dollars and in total lost today about $ 13,500 of the value of the coin. Thus, we can conclude that all forecasts for the decline in bitcoin have already come true. Now it is important to understand what will happen next with the cryptocurrency. Let me remind you that the two previous upward sections of the trend in 2013 and 2017 also ended, if not with a landslide fall, then with a long decline, which sometimes amounted to 90%. Thus, I will not be surprised at all if this time it will be the same. The news background for digital gold has been very bad lately. Negative news from Tesla, the eternal comments of Elon Musk, whom Tesla investors will soon be suing, news from China, where financial institutions were banned from providing any cryptocurrency services, as well as further problems with electricity in one of the regions of China, I believe that these the data only gave a push to bitcoin down. The news is really important, but I cannot say that it was because of them that the collapse occurred. They were the kick-start that sparked a massive sell-off in cryptocurrency as the market smelled fried. Everyone remembers that earlier, after periods of strong growth, bitcoin always showed equally strong periods of decline. Therefore, many investors today rushed to get rid of their coins outright.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward wave structure can be completed, but at the same time, the landslide decline in the Bitcoin exchange rate can continue as long as investors do not complete their sell-offs. Thus, now I recommend not to rush with new deals, it is better to wait until the situation calms down, and you can understand how strong the wave will turn out. c.

Wall Street predicts a collapse of the asset to $ 29 thousand.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin lost 6% of its value in 2.5 hours. It fell sharply to 3-month lows, reaching $ 42.9 thousand. The latest news from Beijing put pressure on the quotes of the leading cryptocurrency.

China has decided to end its already strained relationship with virtual currencies. Four years ago, local crypto exchanges were closed there, and yesterday it became known that the services of financial companies related to cryptocurrency transactions were banned in the Middle Kingdom.

The statement was signed by 3 financial regulators of the country. The new cryptocurrency ban is justified by the fact that the virtual money market is now excessively inflated, speculative trading is taking place on it, and the state, meanwhile, takes care of the interests of people.

– It seems that this is the last knot in the loop, which China tightens around the neck of cryptocurrencies, – commented the head of the London-based crypto-credit platform Nexo Anthony Trenchev.

On Wednesday morning, the long-suffering bitcoin continues to melt before our eyes, maintaining the downtrend, which it took last week after two statements by Elon Musk.

So, at the time of preparing the material, the digital leader fell to $ 39.209. Over the course of the day, it fell in price by more than 14%, and over the week its losses amounted to more than 30%.

Other leading cryptocurrencies also declined for the bitcoin company in the morning. For example, Ethereum dived in 24 hours by more than 17%, to $ 2,880.

Meanwhile, analyst service Glassnode reports that crypto exchanges registered a net inflow of bitcoins of 30,749.89 last Monday.

This is the highest in 1 day since March 12, 2020, when the price of a digital coin fell 40% amid panic selling caused by the coronavirus. This day was called “Black Thursday”: then the exchanges reported a net inflow of BTC in the amount of more than 40 thousand.

Analysts point out that the current increase in bitcoin inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges is a sign that more retail traders are looking to liquidate their assets in a falling market, while institutional investors are not giving up yet.

Nevertheless, Wall Street experts believe that the support of large investors will not save the situation. Bitcoin will not be able to stay on its feet anytime soon and will continue to fall.

One of the reasons the global cryptocurrency will be on the bearish side is its strong dependence on the statements of Elon Musk. Recall that in recent days, the head of Tesla and SpaceX has twice knocked Bitcoin down.

Given the negative news background, analysts predict that in the short term the quotes will move below $ 40,000. There are also more pessimistic scenarios.

For example, analyst Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro believes that, being further on the downward wave, BTC could collapse to January lows. His forecast for the leading cryptocurrency is $ 29K.

However, the expert is sure that Bitcoin will not stay at the bottom for long. In his opinion, the coin has good growth potential, therefore, following a significant drop, a new stage of a rapid take-off will begin. Worth notes that, despite the current downturn, BTC still has a chance to hit a record high of $ 100,000 towards the end of the year.

Bitcoin lost about 40% of its record of 64770. China did not support cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has wiped out all the gains it got thanks to Tesla Inc. dated February 8, regarding the fact that he will use corporate money to buy a digital asset and accept it as a form of payment for his cars.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world showed a decrease of about 40% from its record of $ 64,770 per coin and at the moment the price is around $ 39,500, where just on February 8 Tesla announced its purchase of BTC.

Of course, now the greatest volatility is created by Tesla CEO himself – Elon Musk, who last week was able to surprise cryptocurrency enthusiasts by announcing that the company will no longer accept bitcoins as payment, which allowed bitcoin to show a decrease of about 15% over the weekend. since Musk has doubled down on his criticism of the environmental burden of cryptocurrency.

Then on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China issued a statement confirming that digital tokens cannot be used as a form of payment, highlighting the regulatory risk associated with cryptocurrencies, which allowed Bitcoin to be returned in the period before February 8.

Fiona Chincotta, Senior Financial Markets Analyst at City Index, said: “These huge swings we’ve seen in cryptocurrency really highlight the speculative nature of cryptocurrency as an asset. We have Elon Musk, who is leading transactions in the cryptocurrency world and creating problems not for the first time, and I cannot imagine that it will be the last time. ”

Musk, with his often mysterious Twitter posts that can move billions, has become a Svengali-like character in the crypto world, while Tesla’s decision is a watershed moment for many in the crypto sector who saw it as another step in the evolution of the asset.
But that was all quickly wiped out after Musk raised concerns among investors over the head-spinning tweets that began last week when he criticized Bitcoin’s use of energy.


Elon Musk announced that Tesla would suspend buying cars using the token and called the latest energy consumption trends “insane”, and over the weekend, hinted that his electric car company might sell its bitcoins, he sent out tweets in which he explained that it was not so it also caused anxiety among traders.

DWS Group’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, David Bianco, said: “I don’t think his comments are helping to transform it into a more serious asset class. People look at it and think to themselves that this is just a fad, there is too much pop culture attention on it, and professional investors don’t want to hear about the investments talked about on Saturday Night Live. ”

New investors in bitcoin are fleeing the market and incurring losses, while professionals are gaining positions

The bitcoin rate began to fall rapidly after the news that three associations at the Central Bank of China issued a document prohibiting various institutions in the country from doing business with cryptocurrency, urging the public not to participate in investing in this asset, emphasizing that all such operations are not protected by law. Recently, due to the popularity of altcoins in China, a huge number of new investors have appeared, which has attracted the attention of regulators. And although this warning was issued only by the Central Bank, one can definitely come to the conclusion that the demand for cryptocurrencies and other altcoins is again attracting increased attention from the Chinese authorities.

There are three official terms used in China that equate to describing bitcoin: digital currency, cryptocurrency, and virtual currency. Their values, the attitude of the authorities radically diverge from positive to negative.

News from the Middle Kingdom has repeatedly had a short-term impact on the market, and now, when the nerves of traders are stretched to the limit, and about 77% of cryptocurrency wallets prefer not to give up their assets even at current prices, the next information stuffing and warnings from China can play a cruel joke in relation to bitcoin, which can quickly go to the region of 29,000 and “will not have time to blink an eye.” These are the realities of cryptocurrency trading.

As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, then it has not changed much compared to yesterday, but buyers clearly have problems and no one knows what to do with them. As you can see from the graph, a stop at 43,000 is far from the end, since a breakdown of this range will lead to a larger level of 37,900, and then quite possibly to a test of USD 33,300, but here serious problems may already begin, since updating this level will form a large bearish trend in the market that can push bitcoin to the 29,000 area. The 200-day moving average passes around 39,500, and usually when it breaks out, a large downward movement occurs, which can be completed around 33,300. capped at 47,500 and 52,000.

And if the technical picture is very bad, the situation is even worse with a number of key indicators of blockchain data. As noted in Glassnode, the market correction, among other things, was caused by new investors who sell cryptocurrency in panic, not understanding what is happening to the market and how to proceed. According to the SOPR indicator, which shows the short-term holder of cryptocurrencies and the STH-SOPR indicator, filters wallets and coins on them younger than 155 days – both indicators fell significantly below the key threshold of 1, which means that new market participants succumbed to panic and sold bitcoins in panic. incurring significant losses.

The SOPR reading for long-term holders also tends to decrease, but its value exceeds 4, which is generally not so bad.


But there is good news: at the same time, the number of addresses that accumulate bitcoins continues to grow, and the number of addresses with a non-zero balance fell by about 2.8%, indicating that long-term holders are buying at the last price drop. Glassnode also notes that as bitcoin is still trading at a much higher price than during the last bull market, more capital inflows are needed to fully recover.