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US market, ruble, geopolitics, increase in the rate of the Central Bank of Russia

S & P500 daily chart.

Correction signs intensify.

Corrective sentiment won out on the US market yesterday – all major indices – Dow, S & P500, NasdaQ – fell -0.9%, despite a strong weekly employment report. The reason is that the market needs a correction, even if growth follows later.

Asian markets: China + 0.5%, Japan -0.8%

Covid in the world: The third wave does not recede, in the world +880 K new cases, this is above the high of the Second wave in January. The terrible situation in India: +330 K new cases. The leaders in mortality per day are Brazil and India – 2 K deaths per day. In Europe, France +34 K, Germany +29 K new cases for yesterday, Poland and Ukraine by +13 +16 K cases.

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The market waited yesterday for the ECB’s decision – the ECB fully retained all measures to support the economy – the zero rate of the Central Bank and the program to inject liquidity into the markets through the repurchase of bonds. The market practically did not react.

USDRUB 75.50 Forecast 74.50 – 76.50

The ruble reacted violently to geopolitics yesterday: After the statement of the Russian Defense Ministry to Shoigu about the withdrawal of troops from the borders with Ukraine, the ruble strengthened by about 1.2 rubles against the dollar and the euro.

As a result of the Putin-Lukashenko meeting yesterday, no important statements were made, this is also not bad for the ruble exchange rate. The ruble is waiting for an increase in the rate from the Central Bank of Russia today – the market allows both an increase in the rate of + 0.5% and + 0.25%

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EURRUB90.85 Forecast 90.00 – 91.50 Euro has grown against the dollar since the beginning of April, amid a general decline in the dollar, but the euro ran into strong resistance at 1.2080. The euro / ruble rate is also awaiting a decision by the Central Bank of Russia today

BRENT 65.80 + 0.5% Forecast 64.00 – 67.50 Oil rallies after two days of decline. Perhaps oil found support after correction.

WTI $ 61.80 + 0.5% today Forecast 60.80 – 63.00. Oil is supported by the opening of the US economy – and the expectation of an increase in demand for fuel in the summer in the US, in contrast to last year.

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Conclusion: Today is likely to be a day of calm trading – no big news, important events did not lead to big moves yesterday. The Russian market and the ruble will appreciate the decision of the Central Bank of Russia. The world market will closely watch the close of the week in the US market.

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