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US market after GDP, oil, ruble


The US market received its 1Q GDP report yesterday. GDP grew at a high rate of + 6.2%, but at the same time the GDP deflator – an inflation indicator – rose to 4.1%, inconvenient for the Fed. The weekly employment report showed a stabilization of claims for benefits at 550 K and total unemployment at 3.6 million US indices showed growth after the Fed and GDP data: Dow and S & P500 + 0.7%, NASDAQ + 0.2%

Asian markets – correctional sentiments won here: Japan -0.8%, China -0.9%.

In China, the indices of business activity in manufacturing came out slightly weaker than the forecast of +51.1.

In Japan, on the contrary, reports showed unemployment decline to 2.6%, better than expected, new construction growth + 1.5% higher than forecast. In general, the data on the Japanese economy is very optimistic.

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Covid in the world: new cases rise again to +899 K yesterday. The third wave in the world is at its maximum. India is huge +387 K cases yesterday, +3.5 K deaths, in Brazil new cases are less than +69 K, but +3 K deaths yesterday. A dangerous situation persists in the main EU countries: Germany +28 K, France +27 K cases yesterday.

In Moscow on Wednesday, there was a sharp surge in new cases of covid, +3200 per day, which is 30% higher than the level of previous days. This led to an increase in new cases in Russia above 9000, + 9.3K for the first time in a long time. Last year, the maximum of the second wave in Moscow and Russia was noted in mid-May, at the same time.

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WTI 64.40 -0.6% today; Oil rose yesterday by $ +1 after a strong report on US GDP and renewed its April high. Still, the upside potential looks small. Range 63.50–65.50

BRENT 68.10 -0.6% today; range 67.00–69.00 dollars. Oil is growing on forecasts of growth in global demand and forecasts of price increases from analysts of large banks.

USDRUB 74.70. The forecast range is 73.50–75.70. The ruble continues to look strong against the dollar and the euro – the effect of raising the rate of the Central Bank of Russia to 5% has not yet been fully won back. A new wave of tension between Russia and the West is not yet visible, and the ruble may strengthen further.

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EURRUB 90.30. The range is 89.50–91.30. The euro looks a little stronger than the dollar – on the world market, the euro has consolidated above 1.2000 against the dollar after soft decisions and statements from the Fed.

Conclusion: The markets received the main news of the week – the Fed and the report on US GDP for 1Q, now investors will appreciate the close of the week in the US market.

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