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Treasuries are not behaving at all the way Wall Street strategists expect

Difference between current price and year-end consensus for major asset classes (from left to right): oil, S&P 500, dollar index, euro to dollar rate and the yield on 10-year Treasuries. Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries stand out among the major asset classes by the largest deviation from the average forecasts made by Wall Street strategists. The S&P 500 stock index, dollar index, euro-dollar rate and oil price are within about 1% of the consensus forecast of market experts at the end of the year, follows from Bloomberg data.

However, the 10-year Treasury yield remains 0.26% below the year-end average forecast of 1.83%, equivalent to a 14% deviation. In other words, Wall Street strategists continue to wait for the sale of US Treasury bonds and, therefore, an increase in their yield amid the US economy’s exit from coronavirus lockdowns.

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