Black Pipper

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The pound has overcome 1.40, and this is far from the limit

Schedule pound to dollar at intervals of 4 hours

The pound is posting its longest winning streak in nearly nine months amid UK vaccination success and optimism about accelerating economic growth despite an unexpected weakening of the labor market. Pound / US Dollar Rises 0.2% To 1.4009, The Highest Level Since March 4; the seventh day rises – the longest winning streak since July 30. EUR / GBP is rising 0.2% to 0.86245. UK 10-year government bonds are falling and the yield rises 1bp to 0.77%. The yield spread on UK 5-30-year bonds is stable at 96bp. FTSE 100 -0.4%.


“Although the pace of vaccinations slowed in early April and put pressure on the pound, last week there were reports of strong sales from UK businesses following the reopening of a number of sectors on April 12,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank. “This rekindles hopes for a dramatic recovery in UK economic growth.” “We expect the pound to rise, but with so much good news embedded in its price, it is likely that the pace and scope of the pound’s rise will slow down in the coming months.”


The move is also fueled by rising real rates in the UK after the country avoided a hard Brexit, said Nomura currency strategist Jordan Rochester.

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“The UK budget has escaped austerity in the near future and introduced tax breaks for corporations, which should boost investment spending.”


If there is a breakout of $ 1.4010, the rate could rise to $ 1.4103, says Jeremy Stretch, head of G-10 currency research at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.


“After a bad period in the first half of the month, the pound shows a more normal reaction in April, namely strengthening.”


The fact that the 21-week moving average is supporting the pound suggests that the risks are biased towards gains. After closing above the April 6 high of 1.3919, a short-term bottom looks set to form as the pound channel rallies for a seventh day. Daily support: 1.3859, 55-DMA; weekly support: 1.3669, April 12 low. Intraday resistance: 1.4017, March 4 high; weekly resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high.

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