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The current ruble exchange rate is undervalued – Ministry of Economic Development

Schedule ruble to dollar at intervals of 1 day

The Ministry of Economic Development considers the current ruble exchange rate to be undervalued if it is calculated based on fundamental factors. Hence the conclusion: officials expect the ruble to increase to 71-72 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.

Source of information: anonymous source in the ministry. It was spread by the Russian media, in particular by Interfax.

The ministry adjusted the forecast for the average annual ruble exchange rate for 2021 to 73.3 rubles. from 72.4 rubles. according to the September forecast (due to the weaker ruble at the beginning of the year than expected in the September forecast). In 2022, the statement expects the ruble to strengthen compared to 2021 – the average annual dollar rate of 71.8 rubles. (73.1 rubles according to the September forecast), in 2023 – 72.6 rubles. (73.8 rubles), in 2024 – 73.6 rubles.

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“At the beginning of this year, we see the ruble weakened, but we proceed from the assumption that this is all psychology. The fundamental exchange rate – we expect a return by the end of this year – 71-72 rubles per dollar, as a result of the average annual rate – 73.3 rubles per dollar for this year, in 2022 – 71.8 rubles, in the medium term – 72-74 rubles per dollar. We focus more on the fundamental rate in the forecast, “the source commented on the ministry’s forecast for the exchange rate.

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