Schedule euro to ruble at intervals of 1 day
Standard Chartered recommends opening short positions in the euro against the ruble after the announcement of sanctions on the new state debt of the Russian Federation. It is better for this to use three-month forward contracts with a target of 83.2 and a stop-loss at 94 rubles per single currency.
The ruble can benefit from the elimination of a more serious risk – the sanctions on OFZs in circulation, write in the review of the bank’s strategists.
The effect on the ruble from the imposed sanctions will be limited, given that local banks have the opportunity to buy out an additional supply of public debt, and the Ministry of Finance – to reduce the volume of loans. Oil prices have significant upside potential in Q2 on the back of vaccination progress, OPEC + policies and declining global stocks.
Exactly a month ago, Standard Chartered experts wrote that the United States is unlikely to introduce restrictive measures against OFZs circulating in the secondary market, since American and European investors will suffer from this.
If sanctions are imposed only on new issues of OFZ (which happened), the weakening of the ruble will be limited, analysts wrote in March, stressing that Russian banks have enough funds to finance government spending through the purchase of OFZs, as they did mainly last year.
The absence of sanctions on the secondary OFZ market is the possibility of reopening long ruble positions, the bank said a month ago.
Russian experts on the foreign exchange market generally share the point of view, which implies the possibility of strengthening the ruble in the near future.
Thus, VTB Capital believes that the sanctions news have already been taken into account by the market, so yesterday’s reduction in losses by the ruble was “logical”. In the near future the rate may be trading in the range of 75.5–76.4 per dollar. However, if the geopolitical agenda remains calm, the ruble has the potential to move in the range of 73–74 / $, given the beginning of the tax period in the Russian Federation, VTB Capital noted.
The strengthening of the domestic currency to the levels of 74-75 rubles per dollar in the short term is possible, says Dmitry Polevoy, investment director of Loko-Invest. The morning growth of the Russian currency on Friday confirms the thesis that the market will be more willing to play in the scenario of the growth of the ruble, especially against the background of the introduction of a temporary ban on flights to Turkey / Tanzania, contributing to a slight decrease in demand for currency, the expert noted.
In his opinion, in the short term, the sanction premium in the ruble may continue to decline, allowing it to move to 74–75 per dollar, although a more significant ruble growth will require a qualitative improvement in flows from non-residents to hedge their positions in OFZs.