Black Pipper

Forex Dreamers

Sova Capital: “fair” dollar / ruble rate is 70, even taking into account the sanctions

Schedule dollar to ruble exchange rate at intervals of 1 week

The ruble is noticeably undervalued against the dollar, and its “fair” rate is about 70, that is, about 6.5% below current levels, writes Artem Zaigrin, an economist at the British brokerage company Sova Capital. Moreover, these estimates take into account all the sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation.

The expert notes that the premium for geopolitical risk in Russian assets has decreased, but still remains high. In particular, in the OFZ curve it is 0.5-0.7%, and in the ruble, as indicated above, it is about 5 rubles per dollar.

If the current crisis in eastern Ukraine is completely resolved, it may continue to shrink, but there is no certainty that it will completely disappear, the economist concludes.

Also read  The dollar is weak, players will wait for April non-farms. USD, EUR, GBP overview

On Thursday, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of checks on troops in the south and west of Russia and their return to their places of permanent deployment.

On Friday, the head of the Pentagon’s press service, John Kirby, said that despite the official statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is too early to judge the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border with Ukraine.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *