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Renaissance Capital sharply lowers its forecast for the ruble in 2021

Schedule ruble at intervals of 1 day

Investment company Renaissance Capital has lowered its forecast for the average ruble rate in 2021 from 69.5 rubles per dollar to 74 rubles per dollar, with unchanged expectations for oil prices ($ 65 per barrel).

The company’s analysts predict an increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by 50 basis points on Friday, April 23, to 5%, with a further increase during the year by another 75 points, to 5.75% (three increases in a row by 25 basis points in June, July and September). They explain that a weakening of the ruble amid persistently high inflation will require a faster return of the regulator to a neutral monetary policy.

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They forecast inflation at the end of 2021 at 4.7% y / y, the average for the year – 5.6% (previously estimated at 3.7% and 4.7%, respectively).

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