To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:
The decision of the Federal Reserve System led to a sharp rise in the British pound, which was quite expected. I paid attention to this in my yesterday’s forecasts. Also, quite a lot of signals were formed to enter the market. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and understand the entry points. In the first half of the day, after a small downward correction of the pair, the bears achieved the formation of a false breakout in the 1.3859 area, where I recommended opening long positions. However, given the low volatility of the market, there was no strong upward movement and, as a result, one could be content with only 25 points of profit. In the afternoon, the bears managed to defend the resistance at 1.3921, which led to the formation of a signal to sell the pound, which was reluctant to fall before the Fed meeting. The downward movement also amounted to about 25 points. A sharp rise in the pound towards the end of the American session led to a resistance test of 1.3970, from which I advised selling the pair immediately on a rebound. The downward movement was about 30 points.
I analyzed all the deals in more detail in my video forecast.
The bulls managed to get above the important resistance 1.3917, which now acts as a support. Therefore, in the first half of the day, it is so important for the buyers of the pound to prevent a breakout of this range, where the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open new long positions in the expectation of the continuation of the upward April trend. An equally important task for the bulls will be the breakout of the 1.3970 level, which limited the growth of GBP / USD during the Asian session today. Only fixing on it with a reverse test from top to bottom will lead to the formation of another entry point to long positions in the expectation of an exit to resistance 1.4016, where I recommend taking profits. It is possible to count on a more active growth of the pound above the level of 1.4016 only after today’s data on the United States’ GDP, which is scheduled to be released in the afternoon. In case of a decline in the pound and lack of activity in the support area of 1.3917: I recommend postponing long positions immediately to a rebound from the local minimum in the 1.3863 area, from where you can count on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:
Pound sellers need to think about how to regain support at 1.3917, as only such a scenario will interrupt the bullish impulse and bring the pair back to the sideways channel, in which it was all this week. The breakout of 1.3917 and the test of this level from the bottom up on the volume forms a good signal to open short positions in GBP / USD with the main target of the pair falling to the support area of 1.3863, for which a fierce struggle will begin again. A breakthrough of this range will allow the bears to take control of the market, which will push GBP / USD to a minimum of 1.3811, where I recommend taking profits. Considering that important fundamental data on the UK economy is not expected in the first half of the day today, it is possible that the pound will be able to recover back to the resistance area of 1.3970. Only the formation of a false breakout there will lead to the formation of a good entry point to short positions with the aim of lowering to support 1.3917, where the moving averages, playing on the buyer’s side, pass. In the absence of activity on the part of bears in the 1.3970 area: the optimal scenario would be to sell immediately on a rebound from a new local maximum in the 1.4016 area, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
EUR / USD: plan for the European session on April 29. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). The euro is breaking through to new monthly highs. Bulls aiming at 1.2151 breakout
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for April 20 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, while the total non-commercial net position remained almost unchanged, only slightly decreasing from the previous value. The growth of positions indicates a return to the market of players hoping for further growth of the pound. However, such high prices are very attractive for sellers, therefore, a sharp rise in short positions was also noted. Good fundamental data, which was released last week on the UK economy, once again proves a rather high probability of strong economic growth rates in the 2nd quarter of this year. This will further contribute to the growth of the British pound in the medium term, so I recommend betting on its further strengthening against the US dollar. It is important how the market reacts to the fundamental reports on the American economy this week and to the decision of the Federal Reserve System on interest rates – this will be the main one for the further movement of the pound along the trend, or for a downward correction of the pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 52,851 to 61,053.At the same time, short non-commercial positions rose from 27,261 to 35,875, resulting in the non-commercial net position being only slightly lower to 25,178, versus the level of 25,590 a week earlier. On the other hand, the closing price jumped to 1.3991 against 1.3753 last week, which indicates an upward potential for the pair.
Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued growth of the pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.3980 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3865.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
- Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands Period 20
- Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.