Black Pipper

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Forecast based on horizontal volumes for Bitcoin

1.How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

3. Analysis of the trend.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

5. Conclusions. Statistics.

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

To make money on cryptocurrencies, you need to add the right money management system to a good trading system. Let’s first look at the conservative money management methods to start with:

– Standard lot. This is the first method to start money management with for a novice trader. With this method, the trader constantly trades the same, often the minimum lot. The lot can be increased only with a significant increase in the deposit, and then trading is again conducted with a standard lot.

What are the advantages of this money management method? It helps the novice trader gain experience in trading in the real market for real money, but without the risk of large losses. This method also helps to test the trading system on real trading. A good trading system should be profitable in pips. If the system is not profitable when trading a standard lot or the profitability is about zero, then the system needs to be improved. Using other more sophisticated money management techniques will not fix a bad system. Using aggressive methods such as martingale or averaging can only give a temporary semblance of profit. At the same time, risks can significantly increase.

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How much can you trade with a standard lot? Until you gain confidence in your trading system. The trading system should show good statistics. The statistics should contain at least 100 transactions and several months of trading. And if all is well, then you can move on to more complex money management methods and increase the lot. But not before.

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

The fall of bitcoin was suspended. The last days have long shadows, which suggests that the bears are trying to push the price down, but the bulls are always buying this fall. This speaks of the strength of the bulls. Consider the levels of maximum horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange. These volumes show the activity of major players.

04/19/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 56515

04/20/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 56120

RUS fell down, the price was below the maximum volume. The market is going down. In such a situation, you can sell, in terms of volume analysis.

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3. Analysis of the trend.

The second step in the analysis is to check the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. It is worth making deals when the direction of all three trends coincides. To analyze the trend, in these forecasts, an exponential moving average is used:

Long-term trend – EMA 1152 (blue) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the D timeframe;

Medium-term trend – EMA 288 (red) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the H4 timeframe;

Short-term trend – EMA 48 (black) on the H1 timeframe.

EMAs are braided, the trend is changing. The price is at EMA 48 and EMA 1152, which indicates the uncertainty in the market. There is no clearly pronounced trend. Short-term, medium-term and long-term trends do not coincide. Therefore, today you can buy and sell from the point of view of trend analysis.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Market analysis using Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let’s analyze yesterday’s daily candle:


Closing of the daily candle upwards, the candlestick is white. The low is below the low of the previous candle. Candlestick configuration – Hammer pointing up. From the point of view of Japanese candlestick analysis, buying is worth considering.

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5. Conclusions. Statistics.

  1. Volumetric analysis SELL.
  2. Long term trend BUY SELL.
  3. Medium-term trend SELL.
  4. Short term trend BUY SELL.
  5. Japanese candlestick analysis BUY.

General conclusion: 04/21/21 it is possible to buy and sell bitcoin for the short term, since different types of analysis give different predictions.

Only statistics can show the effectiveness of any trading approach. According to these forecasts, transactions are made on a separate account, and open statistics of these transactions are provided. Transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCHUSD, which are analyzed in the same way. Statement:


I do not open new deals in bitcoin, there is uncertainty in the market.

The risk per trade is not more than 1%, this approach is conservative. Stop loss for this system is set behind the minimum or maximum of the signal day, depending on the direction of the deal. Profit is given the opportunity to grow without restrictions, since I do not set take profit. I accompany the trade by moving the stop loss for the extremes of new days.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will be in the black!

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