Black Pipper

Forex Dreamers

Buyers failed to defend support at 1.2047

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In my forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level 1.2047 and recommended to act based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and understand the entry points. I advised to open long positions when a false breakout was formed in the area of ​​1.2047, which happened. However, to my regret, buyers started to act a little earlier from the level of 1.2048, which was contrary to my trading system, so I missed this trade. After rising by 30 points, closer to the second half of the day, the bears once again returned to the support area at 1.2047 and only achieved a breakdown of this level from the third time.

Considering that in the second half of the day there are no fundamental statistics at all, it is possible that the market will remain under the supervision of sellers. The bulls’ initial objective is now to regain control of the 1.2047 level. Only its test from top to bottom forms an entry point into long positions with the prospect of entering a new high of 1.2109, where I recommend taking profits. A further target is resistance 1.2180, in the area of ​​which a lot of sellers will be concentrated, which will limit the upward potential of the pair. In the scenario of the absence of bulls’ activity in the area of ​​resistance 1.2047, it is possible that the pair’s downward correction will continue. In this case, new long positions can be considered only after the 1.1991 support update, where the formation of a false breakout will lead to an excellent entry point for buying the euro. In the absence of buyers and in this range, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of a larger minimum of 1.1946, from which you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The sellers have so far managed to stop the upward trend of the pair and brought the level of 1.2047 back under control. Only its test from the bottom up will lead to the formation of a good entry point to short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.1991, where I recommend taking profits. The next support is seen in the 1.1946 range. If the buyers of EUR / USD regain control of the resistance at 1.2047 in the second half of the day and there will be no noticeable bearish actions around this range: I recommend postponing short positions until the test of the next high of 1.2109 and only from there sell the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction at 15 -20 points within the day. It is worth noting that no fundamental statistics are released during the American session, which may weaken the positions of the euro sellers, since our trend is still upward. Therefore, when selling from the level of 1.2047, be very careful and do not forget about stop orders.

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on April 20 (analysis of morning deals). Pound sellers managed to protect the resistance at 1.4000 and achieved a good downward correction of the pair

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I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 13, the indicators of long and short positions have undergone a number of changes – both short and long positions have decreased, which indicates a more cautious approach of traders to the market. It is important that long positions, although they continued to decline, but at a slower pace, which may signal the end of the bear market. Last week was full of not very good fundamental statistics for the euro area, which turned out to be either worse than economists’ forecasts, or coincided with them, which limited the upward potential of the pair. However, talk that the European Central Bank is beginning to think about curtailing the bond buyback program already in the 3rd quarter of this year makes investors look closely at risky assets, which will favorably affect the position of the European currency in the near future.

The news that the vaccination program carried out in the EU countries is starting to yield results allows us to count on the lifting of restrictions and a more active recovery of the eurozone services sector, which will inspire hope for an improved economic outlook and return the EUR / USD to an upward trend. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 192,230 to 190,640, while short non-commercial positions fell from 124,708 to 123,789, indicating short profit taking and a more cautious bears approach. As a result, the total non-profit net position continued to decline and amounted to 66,851 against 67,522 against a week earlier. But the weekly closing price rose significantly to the level of 1.1911 against 1.1816 against last week.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates continued growth in the euro in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Growth will be limited in the area of ​​the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2080. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2025 will lead to a new fall in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands Period 20.
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

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Source: InstaForex

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