Forecast based on horizontal volumes for Bitcoin on 04/30/21

1.How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

3. Analysis of the trend.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

5. Conclusions. Statistics.

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

In order to make money on cryptocurrencies, you need to trade systematically and not rush anywhere. You need to use conservative money management methods. But often traders want quick results and start to resort to aggressive money management methods. One of the very popular methods is martingale.

Martingale Is an aggressive money management method in which the position size increases after a losing trade. The volume may not increase by much, for example, by 10-20% of the previous volume, with a conservative approach. With an aggressive approach, the volume can be reduced by 2 or more times. The goal of martingale is to cover all previous losses with one profitable trade. After the profit is received, the volume can be returned to the initial one. This method can give long-term positive results. And the trader may get the deceptive impression that everything is fine. But one day, a protracted series of unprofitable trades in a row may occur, which can lead to a complete loss of the deposit. To avoid this, you need to test your system using martingale. If a long history test gives positive results, then you can try this approach with a small amount. The capital curve of martingale trading systems can grow in a similar way:

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The figure shows characteristic downward spikes on the equity curve, when the system takes several losses in a row, and then turns into profit in one deal. This is a characteristic feature of martingale trading systems.

Trading systems with martingale can be only part of a portfolio of several trading systems, and a small amount of funds should be allocated to them, since this is an aggressive approach and large losses are possible.

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

Bitcoin is in a sideways correction, neither rising nor falling. Maybe this is the calm before a new strong movement. Consider the levels of maximum horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange. These volumes show the activity of major players.

04/28/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 54410

04/29/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 54410

ROS moved down, the price is above the maximum volume level. Sideways movement in the market. In such a situation, you can buy and sell in terms of volume analysis.

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3. Analysis of the trend.

The second step in the analysis is to check the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. It is worth making deals when the direction of all three trends coincides. To analyze the trend in these forecasts, an exponential moving average is used:

Long-term trend – EMA 1152 (blue) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the D timeframe;

Medium-term trend – EMA 288 (red) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the H4 timeframe;

Short-term trend – EMA 48 (black) on the H1 timeframe.

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The price is above the short-term EMA and is on the medium-term EMA, but below the long-term EMA, the trends do not coincide. Therefore, today you can buy and sell from the point of view of trend analysis.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Market analysis using Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let’s analyze yesterday’s daily candle:

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Closing of the daily candle is down, the candle is black. The low is below the low of the previous candle. Candlestick configuration – A downward trend candlestick, large body, small shadows. Selling should be considered from the point of view of Japanese candlestick analysis.

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5. Conclusions. Statistics.

  1. Volumetric analysis BUY SELL.
  2. Long term trend SELL.
  3. Medium-term trend BUY SELL.
  4. Short term trend BUY.
  5. Japanese candlestick analysis SELL.

General conclusion: 04/30/21 you can buy and sell bitcoin, as different types of analysis give different predictions.

Only statistics can show the effectiveness of any trading approach. According to these forecasts, transactions are made on a separate account and open statistics of these transactions are provided. Transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCHUSD, which are analyzed in the same way. Statement:

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I do not open new deals in the market uncertainty.

The risk per trade is not more than 1%, this approach is conservative. Stop loss for this system is set behind the minimum or maximum of the signal day, depending on the direction of the trade. Profit is given the opportunity to grow without restrictions, since I do not set take profit. I accompany the trade by moving the stop loss beyond the extremes of new days.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

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