Black Pipper

Forex Dreamers

Forecast based on horizontal volumes for Bitcoin as of 05/31/21

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

3. Analysis of the trend.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

5. Conclusions. Statistics.

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

Periodically, the cryptocurrency market goes into a flat state. For example, a similar state is on the market now. During such a period, flat trading strategies will work well, while trend strategies will be worse. Therefore, a trader’s portfolio should include both trend and flat trading strategies. The main features of flat, corridor, counter-trend trading strategies:

– These strategies use the principle of return to the mean. The market tends to be in balance, an average price that is beneficial to both bulls and bears. If the price deviates from the weighted average price, then it tends to return back to the average.

– Corridor trading strategies try to trade from the borders of the corridor. If the price has bounced off the border, then there is a high probability that the price will return to the middle of the corridor or to its opposite border.

– Range trading strategies are based on the hypothesis that it is easier for the price to stay within the range than to leave it. False breakouts of important levels, after which the price returns to the previous range, can be good entry points.

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Based on these features of the market corridors, several flat trading systems can be built. It is necessary to actively use counter-trend trading systems in the markets that are currently in the range. Therefore, it is important for a trader to learn to analyze the current state of the market and trade only those strategies that are most suitable for this market.

2. Analysis of volumes for Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

Bitcoin froze in a sideways movement, but after each channel there is a strong trend. Consider the levels of maximum horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange. These volumes show the activity of major players.

05/27/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 39080

05/28/21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (РОС – Point Of Control) – 35885

ROS moved down, the price is at the maximum volume level. There is a downward movement in the market. In such a situation, you can sell in terms of volume analysis.

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3. Analysis of the trend.

The second step in the analysis is to check the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. It is worth making deals when the direction of all three trends coincides. To analyze the trend in these forecasts, an exponential moving average is used:

Long-term trend – EMA 1152 (blue) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the D timeframe;

Medium-term trend – EMA 288 (red) on the H1 timeframe, this is an analogue of EMA 48 on the H4 timeframe;

Short-term trend – EMA 48 (black) on the H1 timeframe.

The movement has stopped, the price is on the short-term EMA and below the medium-term and long-term EMA, all three trends do not coincide. Today you can buy and sell from a trend analysis point of view.

4. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Market analysis using Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let’s analyze yesterday’s daily candle:

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Closing of the daily candle upwards, the candlestick is white. The low is below the low of the previous candle. Candle configuration is undefined, small body, small shadows. You can buy and sell in terms of candlestick analysis.

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5. Conclusions. Statistics.

  1. Volumetric analysis SELL.
  2. Long-term trend SELL.
  3. Medium-term trend SELL.
  4. Short term trend BUY SELL.
  5. Japanese candlestick analysis BUY SELL.

General conclusion: 05/31/21 you can buy and sell bitcoin, as different types of analysis give different predictions.

Only statistics can show the effectiveness of any trading approach. According to these forecasts, transactions are made on a separate account and open statistics of these transactions are provided. Transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCHUSD, which are analyzed in the same way. 10.4% yield in 3 months with a maximum drawdown of 4.88%. Statement:

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New deals on Bitcoin do not open uncertainty in the market.

The risk per trade is not more than 1%, this approach is conservative. Stop loss for this system is set behind the minimum or maximum of the signal day, depending on the direction of the trade. Profit is given the opportunity to grow without restrictions, since I do not set take profit. I accompany the trade by moving the stop loss beyond the extremes of new days.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

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