Black Pipper

Forex Dreamers

Bitcoin: About the downtrend, the flag and the $ 45,000 hike

As the situation develops on the bitcoin chart, more and more details become noticeable, prompting interesting conclusions. I will not undertake to make global forecasts of growth to hundreds of thousands of dollars, we will consider local technical scenarios for which there are already tangible benchmarks.

The sideways line 53980.47 – 57513.35, clearly outlined yesterday, is in doubt today. Its support was broken, the local minimum was updated before the recovery. It looks like a downtrend is emerging on the 4-hour timeframe. As you remember, last time such a trend ended with a 14% collapse over the weekend.

To form a medium-term vision, let’s start by looking at the daily timeframe. We see that the sloping support 43033.38 – 53697.63 from February 28 was broken during Sunday’s fall. All movements of this week are already being formed below this level. This means that the probability of a deeper downward correction is high.

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We look further. On the daily timeframe, the flag is clearly visible, the pole of which is formed by a Sunday bearish candle, and now a canvas is drawn from that very downtrend. The flag is a trend continuation pattern, often they follow one another on the chart. And the potential for working off is the height of the flag handle.

If you think so, another fall is possible with a target of at least $ 45,000 per bitcoin, or even lower, to the previous all-time high of January 8. And this is already close to $ 42,000 per coin.

But, in fairness, it is worth noting that the flags are not always formed in two, but there are prerequisites for a further fall in bitcoin. That is, the correction may be deeper than even the Sunday lows. The signal in this case, according to the classic triangle trading, is the breakdown of the lower border of the flag. And there, by the way, we have a strong mirror level 61.8 according to Fibo Expansion – close to 52,000 per coin. This means that fixing below it will be a double bearish signal.

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With the daily timeframe sorted out, let’s move on to the usual four-hour timeframe. Here we see that within the descending channel (aka the flag canvas) 57605.23 – 57093.49 – 53404.97 of April 19, there is a potential for local recovery. But it will be possible to talk about a downtrend if the price bounces down from the third point near its resistance line. Therefore, you have to wait to make sure that the technical assumption is correct.

And there, further, if confirmation occurs and everything is technical, BTCUSD may decline again and it will be necessary to monitor the breakdown of the lower border of the flag canvas.

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It is possible that as the situation develops, new patterns will lead to an update of the forecast and the cancellation of the bearish scenario. But so far there is little data for this.

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